Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Leao, Simone, Bishop, Ian and Evans, David 2004, Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model, Journal of urban planning and development, vol. 130, no. 3, pp. 145-158, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2004)130:3(145).

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Title Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model
Author(s) Leao, Simone
Bishop, Ian
Evans, David
Journal name Journal of urban planning and development
Volume number 130
Issue number 3
Start page 145
End page 158
Total pages 14
Publisher American Society of Civil Engineers
Place of publication Reston, Va.
Publication date 2004-09
ISSN 0733-9488
Keyword(s) development systems
dynamic programming
cellular automata
Summary Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.
Language eng
DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2004)130:3(145)
Field of Research 129999 Built Environment and Design not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970112 Expanding Knowledge in Built Environment and Design
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2004, ASCE
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