Second-generation prediction markets for information aggregation: a comparison of payoff mechanisms Slamka, Christian, Jank, Wolfgang and Skiera, Bernd 2012, Second-generation prediction markets for information aggregation: a comparison of payoff mechanisms, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 469-489, doi: 10.1002/for.1225. Attached Files Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads Title Second-generation prediction markets for information aggregation: a comparison of payoff mechanisms Author(s) Slamka, Christian Jank, Wolfgang Skiera, Bernd orcid.org/0000-0001-9285-2013 Journal name Journal of Forecasting Volume number 31 Issue number 6 Start page 469 End page 489 Total pages 21 Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Place of publication London, Eng. Publication date 2012-09 ISSN 0277-6693 Keyword(s) prediction markets preference markets idea markets forecasting decision making new product development Summary Initial applications of prediction markets (PMs) indicate that they provide goodforecasting instruments in many settings, such as elections, the box office, orproduct sales. One particular characteristic of these ‘first-generation’ (G1) PMsis that they link the payoff value of a stock’s share to the outcome of an event.Recently, ‘second-generation’ (G2) PMs have introduced alternative mechanismsto determine payoff values which allow them to be used as preferencemarkets for determining preferences for product concepts or as idea markets forgenerating and evaluating new product ideas. Three different G2 payoff mechanismsappear in the existing literature, but they have never been compared. Thisstudy conceptually and empirically compares the forecasting accuracy of thethree G2 payoff mechanisms and investigates their influence on participants’trading behavior.We find that G2 payoff mechanisms perform almost as well astheir G1 counterpart, and trading behavior is very similar in both markets (i.e.trading prices and trading volume), except during the very last trading hours ofthe market. These results indicate that G2 PMs are valid instruments and supporttheir applicability shown in previous studies for developing new productideas or evaluating new product concepts. Language eng DOI 10.1002/for.1225 Indigenous content off Field of Research 150599 Marketing not elsewhere classified 1403 Econometrics Socio Economic Objective 970115 Expanding Knowledge in Commerce HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal ERA Research output type C Journal article Copyright notice ©2011, John Wiley & Sons Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30091505 Document type: Journal Article Collections: Faculty of Business and Law Department of Marketing Related Links Link Description Connect to Elements publication management system Go to link with your DU access privileges   Connect to published version Go to link with your DU access privileges     Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved. Versions Version Filter Type Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 14:27:21 EST Sat, 25 Feb 2017, 04:01:05 EST Sat, 25 Feb 2017, 05:07:59 EST Wed, 08 Mar 2017, 12:07:41 EST Wed, 08 Mar 2017, 12:13:23 EST Sat, 17 Jun 2017, 02:53:04 EST Wed, 21 Jun 2017, 10:42:20 EST Sat, 20 Jan 2018, 01:30:28 EST Thu, 03 Mar 2022, 11:45:47 EST Mon, 07 Mar 2022, 13:43:13 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 8 times in TR Web of Science Cited 12 times in Scopus Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 386 Abstract Views, 2 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Fri, 24 Feb 2017, 14:27:21 EST