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Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: Modelling future trends in Australia

Hayes, A, Tan, Eng Joo, Killedar, A and Lung, T 2019, Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: Modelling future trends in Australia, BMJ Open, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 1-8, doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026525.

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Title Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: Modelling future trends in Australia
Author(s) Hayes, A
Tan, Eng JooORCID iD for Tan, Eng Joo orcid.org/0000-0003-4449-4404
Killedar, A
Lung, T
Journal name BMJ Open
Volume number 9
Issue number 3
Article ID e026525
Start page 1
End page 8
Total pages 8
Publisher BMJ
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2019-03-30
ISSN 2044-6055
Keyword(s) Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
BODY-MASS INDEX
PREMATURE MORTALITY
SOCIAL INEQUALITIES
SIMULATION-MODELS
BMI TRAJECTORIES
WEIGHT CHANGE
HEALTH
ADULTS
DISPARITIES
POSITION
BMI trajectory
microsimulation
modelling
obesity
socioeconomic inequalities
Summary Objectives: To develop a model to predict future socioeconomic inequalities in body mass index (BMI) and obesity. Design: Microsimulation modelling using BMI data from adult participants of Australian Health Surveys, and published data on the relative risk of mortality in relation to BMI and socioeconomic position (SEP), based on education. Setting: Australia. Participants: 74 329 adults, aged 20 and over from Australian Health Surveys, 1995-2015. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcomes were BMI trajectories and obesity prevalence by SEP for four birth cohorts, born 10 years apart, centred on 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Results: Simulations projected persistent or widening socioeconomic inequality in BMI and obesity over the adult life course, for all birth cohorts. Recent birth cohorts were predicted to have greater socioeconomic inequality by middle age, compared with earlier cohorts. For example, among men, there was no inequality in obesity prevalence at age 60 for the 1940 birth cohort (low SEP 25% (95% CI 17% to 34%); high SEP 26% (95% CI 19% to 34%)), yet for the 1970 birth cohort, obesity prevalence was projected to be 51% (95% CI 43% to 58%) and 41% (95% CI 36% to 46%) for the low and high SEP groups, respectively. Notably, for more recent birth cohorts, the model predicted the greatest socioeconomic inequality in severe obesity (BMI >35 kg/m 2) at age 60. Conclusions: Lower SEP groups and more recent birth cohorts are at higher risk of obesity and severe obesity, and its consequences in middle age. Prevention efforts should focus on these vulnerable population groups in order to avoid future disparities in health outcomes. The model provides a framework for further research to investigate which interventions will be most effective in narrowing the gap in socioeconomic disparities in obesity in adulthood.
Language eng
DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026525
Field of Research 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2019, Author(s) (or their employer(s))
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution non-commercial licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30140079

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.