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'Any prediction is better than none'? A study of the perceptions of fire behaviour analysis users in Australia

Neale, Timothy, Vergani, Matteo, Begg, C, Kilinc, M, Wouters, M and Harris, S 2021, 'Any prediction is better than none'? A study of the perceptions of fire behaviour analysis users in Australia, International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 30, no. 12, pp. 946-953, doi: 10.1071/WF21100.

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Title 'Any prediction is better than none'? A study of the perceptions of fire behaviour analysis users in Australia
Author(s) Neale, TimothyORCID iD for Neale, Timothy orcid.org/0000-0003-4703-5801
Vergani, MatteoORCID iD for Vergani, Matteo orcid.org/0000-0003-0546-4771
Begg, C
Kilinc, M
Wouters, M
Harris, S
Journal name International Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume number 30
Issue number 12
Start page 946
End page 953
Total pages 8
Publisher CSIRO Publishing
Place of publication Melbourne, Vic.
Publication date 2021
ISSN 1049-8001
1448-5516
Keyword(s) Australia
decision making
DECISION-MAKING
fire management
fire management modelling
Forestry
INFORMATION
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
MANAGEMENT
planning
predictive services
PREFERENCES
RISK
risk communication
Science & Technology
bushfire
emergency management
Summary Internationally, fire and land management agencies are increasingly using forms of predictive services to inform wildfire planning and operational response. This trend is particularly pronounced in Australia where, over the past two decades, there has been an alignment between increases in investments in fire behaviour analysis tools, the training and development of fire behaviour analysts (FBANs), and official inquiries recommending the expanded use of these tools and analysts. However, while there is a relative lack of scholarship on the utilisation of predictive services, existing research suggests that institutional investment and availability are poor indicators of use in contexts with established social dynamics of trust and authority. To better understand the utilisation of predictive services in Australia, we undertook a survey of key predictive services users (e.g. incident controllers, planning officers) in order to test several hypotheses developed from existing studies and ethnographic fieldwork. Our results provide directions for further research and indicate that, rather than simply invest in tools and systems, there is a need for fire management agencies to foster personal connection between predictive services practitioners, their tools and their users.
Language eng
DOI 10.1071/WF21100
Field of Research 160104 Social and Cultural Anthropology
0502 Environmental Science and Management
0602 Ecology
0705 Forestry Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Grant ID RM33501
DE190100233
Free to Read? Yes
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30158297

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Arts and Education
Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation
Open Access Collection
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Created: Thu, 11 Nov 2021, 10:45:52 EST

Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.