The Invisible Primary in an Agent-Based Model: Ideology, Strategy, and Competitive Dynamics Nwokora, Zim and Brouzet, D 2022, The Invisible Primary in an Agent-Based Model: Ideology, Strategy, and Competitive Dynamics, Political Research Quarterly, pp. 1-18, doi: 10.1177/10659129221107567. Attached Files Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads Title The Invisible Primary in an Agent-Based Model: Ideology, Strategy, and Competitive Dynamics Author(s) Nwokora, Zim orcid.org/0000-0002-2171-9319 Brouzet, D Journal name Political Research Quarterly Article ID 106591292211075 Start page 1 End page 18 Total pages 18 Publisher SAGE Place of publication London, Eng. Publication date 2022 ISSN 1065-9129 1938-274X Keyword(s) agent-based model ideology invisible primary machine-learning presidential nominations Summary Historical accounts of American presidential nominating contests suggest that candidates jockey over ideology and policy in ways that shape the outcomes of these races. Yet this aspect of competition has been difficult to analyze with the formal and statistical methods that dominate this research agenda. To address this gap, this article presents a computational agent-based model (ABM) of candidates’ ideological maneuvering during the invisible primary. We extend the framework developed by Michael Laver to study dynamic party competition in Europe, but recast it for the different context and to enable model fit to be more rigorously determined. Our analysis of data from the 2012 Republican invisible primary suggests the importance of ideological jockeying in this contest. Moreover, its dynamics can be well-explained by a basic version of the ABM in which candidates select between three strategies (aggregator, hunter or sticker) and then maintain that strategy over time. The fit of this model, particularly in the short run, can be improved by introducing a “momentum effect” that allows the candidates’ standing in the race to rise or fall without any accompanying ideological change. Language eng DOI 10.1177/10659129221107567 Field of Research 1606 Political Science HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30173351 Document type: Journal Article Collections: Faculty of Arts and Education School of Humanities and Social Sciences Related Links Link Description Connect to published version Go to link with your DU access privileges   Connect to Elements publication management system Go to link with your DU access privileges     Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved. Versions Version Filter Type Mon, 20 Jun 2022, 08:24:16 EST Mon, 20 Jun 2022, 16:08:47 EST Mon, 20 Jun 2022, 16:20:42 EST Tue, 21 Jun 2022, 09:16:20 EST Tue, 28 Jun 2022, 15:59:31 EST Wed, 20 Jul 2022, 10:52:10 EST Wed, 20 Jul 2022, 13:23:30 EST Wed, 20 Jul 2022, 13:28:21 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 0 times in TR Web of Science Cited 0 times in Scopus Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 12 Abstract Views, 0 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Mon, 20 Jun 2022, 08:24:16 EST