roodposhti-anovel-2019.pdf (12.47 MB)
A novel algorithm for calculating transition potential in cellular automata models of land-use/cover change
journal contribution
posted on 2019-02-01, 00:00 authored by M S Roodposhti, J Aryal, Brett BryanBrett Bryan© 2018 The Authors Despite recent advances in quantifying land-use/cover change (LUCC) transition potential, transition rules are often not transparent and uncertainty is rarely made explicit. Here, we introduce DoTRules—a dictionary of trusted rules—as a transparent alternative to calculate transition potential in cellular automata models. Rules relate LUCC variables to the observed historical changes. Shannon entropy is calculated to assess the uncertainty of each rule, and the most trusted rules are used to project future LUCC. DoTRules produces rule-level uncertainty estimates, which can be mapped. In a case study of the Ahvaz region of Iran, the overall accuracy of LUCC simulation calibrated using DoTRules was very similar to simulations calibrated with the state-of-the-art random forest, but DoTRules provides a more transparent approach where transition rule information and uncertainty can be readily accessed and interpreted. The results demonstrate that DoTRules has potential to derive new insights into LUCC processes.
History
Journal
Environmental modelling and softwareVolume
112Pagination
70 - 81Publisher
ElsevierLocation
Amsterdam, The NetherlandsPublisher DOI
Link to full text
ISSN
1364-8152Language
engPublication classification
C Journal article; C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journalUsage metrics
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EntropyLand-use\/cover changeUncertaintyUrban planningModellingSimulationScience & TechnologyTechnologyLife Sciences & BiomedicinePhysical SciencesComputer Science, Interdisciplinary ApplicationsEngineering, EnvironmentalEnvironmental SciencesWater ResourcesComputer ScienceEngineeringEnvironmental Sciences & EcologySUPPORT VECTOR MACHINESCROSS-BORDER REGIONURBAN-GROWTHLOGISTIC-REGRESSIONGENETIC ALGORITHMNEURAL-NETWORKACCURACYINFORMATION
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